Thank God someone finally wrote this. I would also add that, even if he is inclined to drop out, he wouldn't say so now, for several reasons:
1. If he drops out now, all the press coverage will be on internal Democratic Party politics, and none will be where the party wants it, which is on what a jerk Trump is.
2. The narrative if he drops out now is that he was forced out, and the reason is that he is senile. If he drops out at the convention, the narrative will be more that he did so voluntarily ("I thought polls would improve, but they haven't, so I have decided our best chance is to have X be our nominee."
3. Anyone he endorses on the eve of the convention is likely to get the nomination. His endorsement will be most valuable then, and so he can get something for it (Secy of State? NATO Ambassador? )
4. There are ongoing Hamas/Israel negotiations, and he should not be adding more uncertainty thereto
5. Trump’s VP pick might change if he knows Biden isn't running.
If he waits until the convention then how do you account for Ohio? Ohio's ballot deadline is August 7th, which is why the dems are having a "Virtual roll call" prior to their convention in order to comply with this requirement. Ohio's 17 electoral votes aren't anywhere close to California's 54, or Texas's 40, but they're still a factor. Or are you simply assuming that it won't matter since Trump carried the state by 8+ percentage points in '16 and '20, and the dems will write off the state as a waste of their time and efforts?
Great take on things from Biden's POV. But perhaps he's not the key decision maker. The rules on delegate voting are DNC rules and can be changed by the DNC. If enough Democrats think Biden is going to drag down the House and Senate, there's powerful reason to dump Biden. Moreover, press reports generally assume the delegates are "Biden loyalists". I think the evidence that there are any people whose last name is not Biden or who don't work in the White House who are "Biden loyalists" is slim - Biden ran a terrible primary campaign in 2020, only emerging as the nominee after SC, where he won because he was endorsed by Clyburn. Biden has never been a popular figure like Bill Clinton or Obama in the party (see his terrible record in prior campaigns for president). The other main D candidates all quickly withdrew, presumably under party pressure to nominate someone other than Sanders in order to beat Trump. The delegates are party loyalists for sure - making them more likely to get behind party interests than Biden's.
What would it take for Biden to have to withdraw? A deal with something he wants (support for pardoning Hunter, perhaps) and a threat that if he doesn't go with a semblance of dignity, the party will push him out at the convention or that staying likely loses the House and Senate, leaving him open to lots of investigations after Trump takes office (Trump will go after him regardless, but Democratic control of at least one house of Congress can fight back more effectively than an R trifecta). There are an awful lot of D members of the House and Senate who can win despite a Biden loss of 5% but who cannot win if the D candidate goes down by much more. And no D member of the House or Senate wants to be in the minority during a Trump 2nd term.
It doesn't take a conspiracy theory to think the interests of House and Senate members (and leadership, more importantly) are not aligned with Biden's and that they hold plenty of cards to push him out.
Wonderful post, I agree with all of it. My analysis for some time has been that Biden is in a remarkably similar position to that of King Charles I during his trial. Simply stonewalling will carry the day in the short term, even if the other side theoretically has a trump card (the 25th amendment and torture respectively). Charles's mistake was assuming that he could go on indefinitely, Biden is smart enough to realize he only has to hold on for a few weeks. Plus, people forget these things as time goes on.
As long as we're talking just about Biden dropping out, I agree pretty much totally. In my mind it depends on how much the people who want him out, for whatever reason, are willing to risk totally rupturing the Party.
He can't be forced out under the normal rules, but when has that ever stopped either major party? Plus I'm sure there is ample material with which to threaten his entire family, not just Hunter, again IF those who want to are willing to risk Mutual Assured Destruction. They might. I truly have no ide aof what motivates them or if that is enough for them to take the risk.
I doubt if there is any 'bribe' that could move Joe, but I don't know that about his family.
But, if Biden isn't leading the national likely voter polls by around 3%, his chances of winning the electoral college are very low indeed.
And finally, the various factions of the Dem Party are already in a struggle, and removing Joe would only make it worse.
Biden is experiencing a donors revolt though. Money is the lifeblood of a campaign. No money = no campaign. Regardless of whether he wants to run or not, if the donors stop giving him the money then the decision is made for him.
Interesting that not only was this confidently wrong in defiance of prediction markets, but the pre-mortem 15% probability of being wrong doesn't include reality either. Score one for prediction markets! And I'd like to see a post-mortem of this.
I also would be very careful with any polls about alternative Democratic candidates vs. Biden. I'm not sure how accurately they reflect how people would actually vote. This is a well known issue in decision sciences where people don't respond the same way to hypothetical vs real choices.
Thank God someone finally wrote this. I would also add that, even if he is inclined to drop out, he wouldn't say so now, for several reasons:
1. If he drops out now, all the press coverage will be on internal Democratic Party politics, and none will be where the party wants it, which is on what a jerk Trump is.
2. The narrative if he drops out now is that he was forced out, and the reason is that he is senile. If he drops out at the convention, the narrative will be more that he did so voluntarily ("I thought polls would improve, but they haven't, so I have decided our best chance is to have X be our nominee."
3. Anyone he endorses on the eve of the convention is likely to get the nomination. His endorsement will be most valuable then, and so he can get something for it (Secy of State? NATO Ambassador? )
4. There are ongoing Hamas/Israel negotiations, and he should not be adding more uncertainty thereto
5. Trump’s VP pick might change if he knows Biden isn't running.
If he waits until the convention then how do you account for Ohio? Ohio's ballot deadline is August 7th, which is why the dems are having a "Virtual roll call" prior to their convention in order to comply with this requirement. Ohio's 17 electoral votes aren't anywhere close to California's 54, or Texas's 40, but they're still a factor. Or are you simply assuming that it won't matter since Trump carried the state by 8+ percentage points in '16 and '20, and the dems will write off the state as a waste of their time and efforts?
1. My understanding is that that is no longer an issue. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/ohio-passes-bill-ensure-biden-will-appear-states-general-election-ball-rcna154752
2. Besides, as you note, any election in which Biden carries Ohio is an election in which he doesn't need Ohio in order to win.
Great take on things from Biden's POV. But perhaps he's not the key decision maker. The rules on delegate voting are DNC rules and can be changed by the DNC. If enough Democrats think Biden is going to drag down the House and Senate, there's powerful reason to dump Biden. Moreover, press reports generally assume the delegates are "Biden loyalists". I think the evidence that there are any people whose last name is not Biden or who don't work in the White House who are "Biden loyalists" is slim - Biden ran a terrible primary campaign in 2020, only emerging as the nominee after SC, where he won because he was endorsed by Clyburn. Biden has never been a popular figure like Bill Clinton or Obama in the party (see his terrible record in prior campaigns for president). The other main D candidates all quickly withdrew, presumably under party pressure to nominate someone other than Sanders in order to beat Trump. The delegates are party loyalists for sure - making them more likely to get behind party interests than Biden's.
What would it take for Biden to have to withdraw? A deal with something he wants (support for pardoning Hunter, perhaps) and a threat that if he doesn't go with a semblance of dignity, the party will push him out at the convention or that staying likely loses the House and Senate, leaving him open to lots of investigations after Trump takes office (Trump will go after him regardless, but Democratic control of at least one house of Congress can fight back more effectively than an R trifecta). There are an awful lot of D members of the House and Senate who can win despite a Biden loss of 5% but who cannot win if the D candidate goes down by much more. And no D member of the House or Senate wants to be in the minority during a Trump 2nd term.
It doesn't take a conspiracy theory to think the interests of House and Senate members (and leadership, more importantly) are not aligned with Biden's and that they hold plenty of cards to push him out.
Wonderful post, I agree with all of it. My analysis for some time has been that Biden is in a remarkably similar position to that of King Charles I during his trial. Simply stonewalling will carry the day in the short term, even if the other side theoretically has a trump card (the 25th amendment and torture respectively). Charles's mistake was assuming that he could go on indefinitely, Biden is smart enough to realize he only has to hold on for a few weeks. Plus, people forget these things as time goes on.
As long as we're talking just about Biden dropping out, I agree pretty much totally. In my mind it depends on how much the people who want him out, for whatever reason, are willing to risk totally rupturing the Party.
He can't be forced out under the normal rules, but when has that ever stopped either major party? Plus I'm sure there is ample material with which to threaten his entire family, not just Hunter, again IF those who want to are willing to risk Mutual Assured Destruction. They might. I truly have no ide aof what motivates them or if that is enough for them to take the risk.
I doubt if there is any 'bribe' that could move Joe, but I don't know that about his family.
But, if Biden isn't leading the national likely voter polls by around 3%, his chances of winning the electoral college are very low indeed.
And finally, the various factions of the Dem Party are already in a struggle, and removing Joe would only make it worse.
In the end, he stays.
I agree with you. Do you know of places us residents can gamble on this outcome?
PredictIt. Up to $850 there.
There are crypto-based markets as well, though that might take a bit more tech skill and effort, and be a legal gray area.
Thanks! Just bet a hundred dollars.
Biden is experiencing a donors revolt though. Money is the lifeblood of a campaign. No money = no campaign. Regardless of whether he wants to run or not, if the donors stop giving him the money then the decision is made for him.
Interesting that not only was this confidently wrong in defiance of prediction markets, but the pre-mortem 15% probability of being wrong doesn't include reality either. Score one for prediction markets! And I'd like to see a post-mortem of this.
Yes! Thoughts here: https://www.maximumtruth.org/p/betting-markets-were-right-and-i
Oops!
Oops! Thoughts here: https://www.maximumtruth.org/p/betting-markets-were-right-and-i
On Predictit, shares have gone down to 25 cents, so it's an especially good bet now. Maybe the odds have gone down a bit, but not to 1/4.
I also would be very careful with any polls about alternative Democratic candidates vs. Biden. I'm not sure how accurately they reflect how people would actually vote. This is a well known issue in decision sciences where people don't respond the same way to hypothetical vs real choices.