Note: This blog is not generally about elections, but recent events are interesting enough that I’m posting about it. The below is something I just posted on Election Betting Updates, a mailing list that’ll give weekly updates on the odds. If that’s something you’d want to get in future weeks, you can sign up for free here. But in general, such betting odds updates won’t be posted on Maximum Truth, to focus on other subjects.
The last week has brought rapid swings in the betting odds. Here are some of them:
Biden will (probably) drop out. The odds have shifted massively
Here are the current nomination odds, including the graph for the last month:
An amusement park should base their next ride on that graph!
The latest plunge in Biden’s odds reflects media reporting that virtually the entire elite of the Democratic Party has united to force Biden out of the nomination. The list of officials pressuring him out now include Barack Obama, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries — with Schumer and Jeffries speaking not just for themselves, but for Democrats in the Senate and House in general.
Leaks and anonymous sources suggest that Biden may finally be bending under all that pressure, and may be preparing a dropout speech for as soon as tomorrow or Monday. Additionally, Biden has Covid right now, which might have taken a bit of fight out of him.
In an interview with BET earlier this week — after congressional leaders asked Biden to drop out — Biden had already shifted his tone slightly, saying he was reluctant to drop out. That was a bit of a change in tone from his earlier strident insistence.
I’ve also noticed that Biden’s spokespeople are saying things like “he IS running” rather than “he won’t drop out.” A very slight difference, but I think they’re using “weasel words” to avoid overtly lying.
I now see little reason to disagree with the bettors, whereas last weekend, I thought Biden would stay, with high confidence. My change in thought is because it has been revealed that just about every top-level Democrat is pushing hard. I mistakenly underestimated how coordinated the Democratic Party was. Biden getting Covid also didn’t help things. I still have outstanding bets on Biden staying, and I haven’t decided if I’ll wrap them up, because the odds seem pretty plausible right now.
The case for Biden staying rests entirely on the fact that he could still probably get the nomination if he wants. But does he want to fight his entire party on the matter?
Maybe. He just issued a statement again saying he’s staying in the race.
We’ll find out.
The betting shifts over the last month have been quite spectacular. Roughly:
— Debate night, June 28: Biden plunged from 85% to 60% — most of it while the debate was still happening,
— Week after the debate: The market mostly retained its post-debate level.
— July 2: There was another huge plunge, from 65% to 35%, as the first elected Democrats started to turn on Biden.
— July 8: Biden’s odds recovered as he launched a concerted media push, and firmly insisted he wouldn’t quit
— July 10: Biden’s odds fell to the 30s again, on news that Congressional Democrats were plotting to coordinate an effort to get Biden out
— July 12 - 17: Biden’s odds began a gradual rebound, after he gave a relatively strong NATO press conference, without a teleprompter, and as he started to “run out the clock” to the convention. His odds rebounded all the way into the 70s.
— July 18: Biden’s odds collapsed as he tests positive for Covid and, simultaneously, news broke that the previously-mentioned top leaders all met with Biden and told him to drop out. Biden’s drop further continued as reports cited anonymous sources claiming that Biden was finally giving in, and would likely announce dropping out either Saturday or Monday.
Biden’s odds hit a low of 11% yesterday, before returning to about 30% today, as Biden issued a formal statement saying he was still running, and a few others backed him up, including AOC (which I wouldn’t have predicted). There’s a chance the anonymous reports are wrong, and at the end of the day, it’s up to Biden whether he’ll be the nominee.
Thanks for reading Election Betting Updates! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
Trump leads, but not by much
Bettors slightly favor Trump in the election:
Trump saw a debate boost taking him from about 55% to 60%. Then he saw an assassination attempt boost which brought him to nearly 70%.
But then that gain evaporated as it looked likely that Biden would drop out, and that Democrats would field a stronger candidate against him.
Betting markets are clear: Democrats would be slightly better off with Harris, and much better off with Newsom
Looking carefully at the above chart, one can see that Trump’s recent decline coincides pretty precisely with Harris’s recent rise, and Biden’s fall.
That’s what we should expect from the conditional odds, which have consistently said Harris is more electable (though the margin is unusually tiny at this moment):
Some of Trump’s decline might be because of rumors of an open convention, which makes bettors particularly optimistic about Democrats’ chances.
Economist Adam Ozimek also did a regression analysis on historical betting data, and found that Biden dropping out would add about 6 percentage points to Democratic chances of winning the Presidency:
Congressional odds move with the Presidential odds
For the most part, the odds on House control cling stubbornly to 50/50, but they do shift a bit as a party’s Presidential chances shift:
The Senate odds shift even less:
So the bettors say that Democrats should not expect the top of the ticket to matter too much for control of Congress. Local factors, ad spending, and candidates, will be more important.
Conclusion
It’s a wild election!
I’m very curious what will happen in the Democratic primary, which is a historically unprecedented situation. ElectionBettingOdds.com is the best place to get a single summary of number of what’s going to happen.
Now, I’m going to post this before I have to redo all the screenshots again.
Very interesting, and I do find bettors somewhat better indicators than polls. But bettors also seem to be a lot like the stock market and move on rumors as much as thoughtful contemplation.
I still think too many people have too much to lose if Biden drops out. Not just Biden and his family.
And I also believe if Biden is perceived (and in all likelihood will be so preceived) to have been pushed out by Big Money and Party Leaders whoever replaces him won't benefit as much as they could.
I think the 'best' replacement candidates are now more than willing to sit back and watch either Biden or Harris lose and make their play in 2028.
Finally, I truly believe nominating Newsom would enrage enough Black voters for him to lose the election.
It will be Harris. There was never a good chance of it being anyone else beside Biden or Harris.
If I'm anyone but Harris and want to be president, its a lot easier to wait till 2028.