The latest trends in the odds, plus going behind the curtain regarding market manipulation and more
one anecdotal case comment.
in Brexit, the polls suggested toss up with very slight advantage to remain.
but in the referendum day I recall some betting markets giving remain like 85%. huge delusionary miss it felt then
Yes, that seems true in retrospect. I think the bettors had a general rule that "crazy"-seeming populist things wouldn't win. After Brexit and Trump, I think they dropped that and started taking populist wins seriously.
one anecdotal case comment.
in Brexit, the polls suggested toss up with very slight advantage to remain.
but in the referendum day I recall some betting markets giving remain like 85%. huge delusionary miss it felt then
Yes, that seems true in retrospect. I think the bettors had a general rule that "crazy"-seeming populist things wouldn't win. After Brexit and Trump, I think they dropped that and started taking populist wins seriously.