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Tom Maguire's avatar

Excellent article, thx. (I'm now wondering what link at what site brought me here, and whom to thank.)

Not to add to your to-do list, but as I understand it, you have evaluated the accuracy of prediction made by bettors vs. 538 *at 8 AM on Election Day*.

Fair enough, but its only July! I would think the data would be available to evaluate the accuracy of both approaches one month before the election, two months out, and so on.

In other words, even if we now know that bettors will be better on the morning of Nov 5, who is likely to be more accurate today?

Thanks for your effort here. I'm off to see how hard you hit subscribers, and expect to become one.

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Evidence Policy's avatar

Excellent article. I kind of love that bettors can perform as well as a professional in the business of statistics. I'll probably be checking out both sites for some electoral news soon, so thank you for writing this!

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