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David R. Henderson's avatar

Moreover, contributions to Biden/Harris cannot be easily (legally) shifted to another candidate. I don't know the ins and outs, but campaign finance law is complicated.

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James Miller's avatar

Could be Biden wins nomination, than drops out, and Newsom is made the effective nominee but not the nominee for betting purposes. I think your conditional estimate of Newsom winning conditional on him getting the nomination is too high.

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