Biden made me look dumb as well. Though I tried to remind myself the whole time that it was a question of individual psychology, not of systems, and that's always hard to predict. A man can hold all the cards and still choose to fold. A man risk everything on an insane bet, and occasionally even win that bet.
I'm not sure you were that wrong. I tend to suspect the Pelosi, Schumer, et all started seeing polls that showed Biden dragging down the Senate and House races, and threatened Biden's family. Like giving up evidence ofthe Biden business deals that would put everyone but him in prison.
As for Harris, go back and see how excited people were about her in 2019. You know, before she had to actually campaign. She's not really campaigning now. Her honeymoon period will expire in anothe couple of weeks, and she won't be able to hide in the basement.
Plus, even with the MSM's help in burying her record, she is already trying to backtrack on previous policy positions. I don't care if you call it recalibration, she'll see a lot of flipflopping ads. And they will be very effective.
Finally, I think "the Party" didn't want to burn their best future candidates' choices and will concentrate their efforts on the House and the Senate.
Markets on Biden dropping out swung from about 30 to 70 percent, multiple times, before he finally exited the race. I think it's hard to conclude that bettors knew the answer, at any point in that process.
Maxim, this is exactly why I do not pick stocks. Index funds all the way! I was firmly in the camp that he was dropping out, to such a point that I was checking my phone every 15 minutes, expecting to see the announcement.
The reporting I've read on this suggests that Shapiro was always the favorite among Harris and her inner circle, but some last minute controversies (and good chemistry Harris had in a Sunday meeting with Walz) derailed it. So, the bettors might have been "right at the time" based on the reality at the moment, but things changed.
Yeah, after the debate, my main goal was not to be betting on whether Biden dropped -- I had a lot of Biden shares, and also a more-than-full-Kamala hedge, and then also hedged expensively to an "other" bracket just in case it wouldn't be Kamala either. In retrospect i should have sold more Biden shares than I did above 67 a few days before he dropped, and I should have bought more Kamala's at 50 cents (and bought fewer Biden's in the 20s, ouch) the day before. The "Other" shares I hedged with also proved unnecessary. I still think, had he not dropped, he most likely would have snook his way through being nominated, albeit with escalating opposition that might have made it clear to all that his position was untenable. For a few days after the assassination attempt, the campaign to dump him did seem to stall (you had Congressional members saying quietly that there was zero appetite to dump Biden at the moment), and he was totally gone from the NYTimes frontpage for a few days. At that point, he could have been nominated virtually in a matter of days, and so it did look like he was going to run out the clock, at least in my view.
It all came unwound swiftly in a day when the virtual nomination was forcefully delayed, news leaked about gathering opposition from the likes of Pelosi and Schumer, and when he came down with Covid. Then it came out that "groups of senators" were going to come out against him the following Monday. By then the writing was on the wall. However, it's also the case that had he just stayed in, he'd likely have won the virtual roll call.
True. I've now updated the text. I just meant latitude compared to the "blue wall" states, but it's also true that northern NV is more north than south. And that in terms of cultural groupings it's entirely western, as you note.
Biden made me look dumb as well. Though I tried to remind myself the whole time that it was a question of individual psychology, not of systems, and that's always hard to predict. A man can hold all the cards and still choose to fold. A man risk everything on an insane bet, and occasionally even win that bet.
Discounting betting markets and then the betting markets being right is a fundamental experience to understanding betting markets.
If you’ve never had it happen to you before, you should definitely try it out some time. One of the most epistemically humbling experiences.
Totally
I'm not sure you were that wrong. I tend to suspect the Pelosi, Schumer, et all started seeing polls that showed Biden dragging down the Senate and House races, and threatened Biden's family. Like giving up evidence ofthe Biden business deals that would put everyone but him in prison.
As for Harris, go back and see how excited people were about her in 2019. You know, before she had to actually campaign. She's not really campaigning now. Her honeymoon period will expire in anothe couple of weeks, and she won't be able to hide in the basement.
Plus, even with the MSM's help in burying her record, she is already trying to backtrack on previous policy positions. I don't care if you call it recalibration, she'll see a lot of flipflopping ads. And they will be very effective.
Finally, I think "the Party" didn't want to burn their best future candidates' choices and will concentrate their efforts on the House and the Senate.
Markets on Biden dropping out swung from about 30 to 70 percent, multiple times, before he finally exited the race. I think it's hard to conclude that bettors knew the answer, at any point in that process.
But it's easy to conclude that 15% was overconfident.
Maxim, this is exactly why I do not pick stocks. Index funds all the way! I was firmly in the camp that he was dropping out, to such a point that I was checking my phone every 15 minutes, expecting to see the announcement.
I’ve believed this since the debate.
The markets can't underestimate the power of MSM propaganda and the DNC's coup - for Democracy!
https://yuribezmenov.substack.com/p/for-democracy-dnc-got-biden-obama-movie
And now the markets were wrong about the VP choice.
Any idea why they overestimated Shapiro and underestimated Walz so much?
The reporting I've read on this suggests that Shapiro was always the favorite among Harris and her inner circle, but some last minute controversies (and good chemistry Harris had in a Sunday meeting with Walz) derailed it. So, the bettors might have been "right at the time" based on the reality at the moment, but things changed.
Yeah, after the debate, my main goal was not to be betting on whether Biden dropped -- I had a lot of Biden shares, and also a more-than-full-Kamala hedge, and then also hedged expensively to an "other" bracket just in case it wouldn't be Kamala either. In retrospect i should have sold more Biden shares than I did above 67 a few days before he dropped, and I should have bought more Kamala's at 50 cents (and bought fewer Biden's in the 20s, ouch) the day before. The "Other" shares I hedged with also proved unnecessary. I still think, had he not dropped, he most likely would have snook his way through being nominated, albeit with escalating opposition that might have made it clear to all that his position was untenable. For a few days after the assassination attempt, the campaign to dump him did seem to stall (you had Congressional members saying quietly that there was zero appetite to dump Biden at the moment), and he was totally gone from the NYTimes frontpage for a few days. At that point, he could have been nominated virtually in a matter of days, and so it did look like he was going to run out the clock, at least in my view.
It all came unwound swiftly in a day when the virtual nomination was forcefully delayed, news leaked about gathering opposition from the likes of Pelosi and Schumer, and when he came down with Covid. Then it came out that "groups of senators" were going to come out against him the following Monday. By then the writing was on the wall. However, it's also the case that had he just stayed in, he'd likely have won the virtual roll call.
As a long time NV resident I don’t think I have ever heard NV labeled a Southern state? It’s a Western state and Reno is further west than Los Angeles
And most importantly I think Harris will win it given her momentum in the polls and betting markets.
True. I've now updated the text. I just meant latitude compared to the "blue wall" states, but it's also true that northern NV is more north than south. And that in terms of cultural groupings it's entirely western, as you note.